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Prime Minister Abe Shinzo?s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)/New Komeito (NK) coalition is certain to will a huge victory in the July 21 Diet House of Councillors election. Abe will surely win a majority of seats and could reach the two-thirds level that would facilitate his plan to amend Japan?s (U.S. written) ?Peace Constitution.?
The election campaign is now in full swing throughout the country.? In it we observe the strange but admirable phenomenon of abundant, almost excessive, media coverage being accorded leaders and candidates of fringe and obscure parties.? These are labels that might now apply to all except the LDP/NK.? The Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) that ruled for three years until last December has imploded and retains a support level of only some 5%, below that of the Japan Communist Party.
Following the July 21 vote, Abe will have a relatively free hand to push through even the more controversial parts of his agenda, adumbrated in the LDP election ?manifesto? summarized in the previous two posts.
But what may be the most fateful issue for Japan has been carefully played down by Abe, and even by the opposition parties, during the election.? This is how or whether Japan can or should endeavor to unfreeze relations with China and resolve the Senkaku/Diaoyu island dispute.
The serious and increasingly dangerous rupture with China gained a new dimension?and regained the headlines?on July 5 when Abe, appearing on a Fuji Television program, expressed ?deep regret? that China was moving undersea gas field exploration equipment into an area of the East China Sea ?in violation of a bilateral agreement.?? ?I must ask China to honor our agreement,? said Abe.
Abe?s criticism produced a brief flutter of comment in the Japanese media, but was quickly passed over.? In Beijing, however, there was a multi-day thunderstorm.
In this instance, as in so many others affecting Japan?s foreign relations?including with the U.S.?we are again witnessing from Abe a maladroitness bordering on incompetence.? What is going on here?
The specific issue is Chinese exploration in a section of the East China Sea close to?but not over?a notional mid-point line (illustrated in the graphic above) that can be drawn longitudinally (roughly north to south) through a large area of ocean and seabed that both China and Japan claim as falling within their respective 200 mile ?exclusive economic zones? (EEZ). ?After Abe?s statement, Chinese official media published maps and diagrams documenting that activity was taking place on the Chinese side of the ?mid-point line,? and that China was perfectly within its rights.
A July 4?Nihon Keizai Shimbun?article reported that on June 27 the second raking official in Japan?s foreign ministry delivered a formal diplomatic protest of China?s action to the Chinese ambassador to Japan.? On July 3, Japan?s cabinet secretary, Suga Yoshihide, stressed to the press that ?we will not recognize any unilateral development activities in sea areas where the two countries have overlapping claims.?
Anyone with a knowledge of Chinese negotiating style could have guessed what was coming next.
In response to Suga, on the same day, July 3, China?s deputy foreign ministry spokesman, Ms. Hua Chunying, announced to the press that ?we are are conducting exploration activities in sea area under our own administration.???Further, she continued,?China has never agreed to and does not recognize any so-called ?mid-point line??(my italics). ? Therefore, ?China rejects Japan?s protest.?
Ms. Hua was stating facts in denying that China had ever formally accepted the concept of a ?mid-point line.?? Formal acceptance would mean recognizing Japan?s EEZ claims.? This will never happen, just as China will never formally recognize or accept Japan?s claims to the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands.
Hence Abe was telling a highly provocative untruth when he mentioned an ?agreement? with China over exploration in the East China Sea.
But of course there is something more.? In June 2008, Japanese and Chinese government negotiators reach tentative agreement that a Chinese gas field development project in the East China Sea called ?Shirakaba? by Japan and ?Chunxiao? by China should proceed based on Chinese law, but with capital provided by Japanese corporations.? Agreement in principle was also reached to establish a joint development zone in a northern area that extended across the notional ?mid-point line.? ? In these discussions both sides set aside the issue of their respective ?exclusive economic zones.?
As it happened, the above tentative agreements were scheduled to be formalized in signed agreements in September 2010.? However, when Japan-China political relations soured over the collision of a Chinese fishing vessel with a Japanese Coast Guard vessel, China asked for an indefinite postponement of the joint exploration agreement signing.? Since then, and particularly as the Senkaku/Diaoyu island dispute has escalated, China has reverted to strict interpretation of and insistence on its EEZ rights.
It is classic Chinese negotiating style to escalate rhetoric (sometimes combined with histrionic gestures) and to elaborately link otherwise seemingly unrelated issues, to bring maximum pressure on the counterparty to make concessions.? Subtlety is practiced only in obfuscating sources, not in the message or desired effect.? A vivid example of the style was an article penned by ?scholars? in the People?s Daily a few weeks ago that called into question Japan?s sovereign claim over Okinawa.
What is going on in the East China Sea is really about the Senkaku/Diaoyu island dispute and China?s determination not to de-escalate pressure for concessions from the Abe government.? Abe is also under pressure from the Obama administration to show initiative in trying to resolve the issue, so that the U.S. can continue improving relations with China.
It is obvious that Abe is showing strain, and even reaching for straws, as he stumbles in foreign policy. ? The pressure on Abe from both Washington nor Beijing will only increase after July 21.
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